There is a number that floats around Washington DC circles about how much the Chinese government is projected to spend on AI: $70 billion by 2020, up from an estimated $12 billion in 2017. The figure was originally shared in a speech by a top US air force general in 2018, but where it comes from is somewhat of a mystery. Nonetheless, it has helped fan a deep-seated fear within the policy community that the US is sorely losing in the so-called AI arms race.
As the narrative goes, China is not only greatly outspending the US in total research, but specifically in military AI. If the US does not make aggressive moves to catch up and surpass its spending, the country—and democracy—will be doomed.
But new estimates from the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) show that China is likely spending far less on AI than previously assumed. Additionally, most of its money seems to be going to non-military-related research, such as fundamental algorithm development, robotics research, and smart infrastructure development. By contrast, the US’s planned spending for fiscal year 2020 allocates the majority of its AI budget to defense, which means it will likely outspend China in that category. In other words, the numbers directly oppose the prevailing narrative.
The researchers at CSET approximated the upper and lower bounds of China’s AI investments for the year 2018 by cross-referencing its Ministry of Finance’s national expenditure report with other government agencies’ descriptions of their spending. The findings are still preliminary given that they are based on several assumptions. But the researchers have high confidence that their analysis at least confirms that China’s spending is nowhere near existing claims.
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The report underscores the amount of exaggeration and fear mongering that has come to dominate DC’s conversations around AI strategy. As OneZero reported from this year’s National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence conference, it has even become a primary tool for the Pentagon to recruit help from tech companies.